I've run into some trouble trying to make gear for my Thidranki toons and I'm wondering if I'm missing something here. While skilling up on tailoring, for example, which I always use orange items and sometimes yellow if no orange is available, I get 99% items popping out all the time and even the occasional MP, so I don't think there's any kind of hard cap that says you can't craft above 98% while an item is yellow or higher to you. Yet twice now I've had what seems like an extremely unlucky streak, taking 38 attempts to make a 99% chestpiece a couple weeks ago and just now 48 attempts to make 99% leggings. Is there some rule I'm missing here? Can anyone tell me the percentage chance to make a 99% item and is it based on the item's con to your skill? I am not LGM yet. Both times was I was around 700 skill, first time in Hib and tonight in Mid.
Chance to craft 99%?
Started 19 Jun 2019
by
rodsta69
in
Crafting
Wed 19 Jun 2019 9:31 AM
by
lurker
Here is the relevant DoL code:
https://github.com/Dawn-of-Light/DOLSharp/blob/415a4c3eb143b6731725992adbcc0635daf581c5/GameServer/craft/AbstractCraftingSkill.cs
In 1.65 the minimum quality was 94% this was changed to 96% later. Not sure what it is here to be honest.
As far as I am aware it’s a flat 2% chance to get an MP.
If that fails it’s either a 1:6 chance 94-99% or a 1:4 chance 96-99%. (Depending in patch level implemented)
Assuming 94 is the lowest here and the RNG is truly random (unlike other parts of Phoneix) than it’s quite possible to get a long streak where you don’t get 99% unfortunately. Probably just bad luck.
https://github.com/Dawn-of-Light/DOLSharp/blob/415a4c3eb143b6731725992adbcc0635daf581c5/GameServer/craft/AbstractCraftingSkill.cs
In 1.65 the minimum quality was 94% this was changed to 96% later. Not sure what it is here to be honest.
As far as I am aware it’s a flat 2% chance to get an MP.
If that fails it’s either a 1:6 chance 94-99% or a 1:4 chance 96-99%. (Depending in patch level implemented)
Assuming 94 is the lowest here and the RNG is truly random (unlike other parts of Phoneix) than it’s quite possible to get a long streak where you don’t get 99% unfortunately. Probably just bad luck.
Wed 19 Jun 2019 6:38 PM
by
rodsta69
Yea I'm pretty sure I've never seen a 94% or 95% item here. And in those early days you also couldn't craft a 99% until the item was green to you. But that's not the case here because I get 99s and even a MP here and there while skilling on oranges.
I guess my main question is if 99% has a lower chance to pop out than 96-98. If they are all equal, that should mean a ~25% chance to get a 99. That means 75% chance to get something other than 99. The chances of that 75% hitting on 38 straight attempts is 1-(.75^38) = 0.000018 = 0.0018% chance of this happening. The 48 is even more remote at 0.0001%. And the chance of both happening so close together (I only made 6 items for one template and 4 for the other) is astronomical. The numbers are slightly different if you're going off of 1/6 chance, but it's still a fraction of a fraction of a percent chance.
So there has to be something with con of the item or something that lowers the chance and I just want to know what that is so I don't waste time/money in the future.
I guess my main question is if 99% has a lower chance to pop out than 96-98. If they are all equal, that should mean a ~25% chance to get a 99. That means 75% chance to get something other than 99. The chances of that 75% hitting on 38 straight attempts is 1-(.75^38) = 0.000018 = 0.0018% chance of this happening. The 48 is even more remote at 0.0001%. And the chance of both happening so close together (I only made 6 items for one template and 4 for the other) is astronomical. The numbers are slightly different if you're going off of 1/6 chance, but it's still a fraction of a fraction of a percent chance.
So there has to be something with con of the item or something that lowers the chance and I just want to know what that is so I don't waste time/money in the future.
Wed 19 Jun 2019 11:11 PM
by
Kohi
RNG hates u ! ^^
Fun by side, i had my share of surprises too in here with my LGMS regarding %. I must say i never had that much of <99% tries as here, neither on live nor on Uthgard. Regarding MPs it's worser, especially with chain, with my last sc being a real nightmare, as i had for 2 pieces respectively 130 tries and 90 tries. With clothers, leather and studded works better tho. Think it would be nice to implement some sort of 'condition' safeguard like a cap by 80 tries or so, in order to get a mp. Just a thought.
Fun by side, i had my share of surprises too in here with my LGMS regarding %. I must say i never had that much of <99% tries as here, neither on live nor on Uthgard. Regarding MPs it's worser, especially with chain, with my last sc being a real nightmare, as i had for 2 pieces respectively 130 tries and 90 tries. With clothers, leather and studded works better tho. Think it would be nice to implement some sort of 'condition' safeguard like a cap by 80 tries or so, in order to get a mp. Just a thought.
Thu 20 Jun 2019 6:36 AM
by
Topenga
If I recall correctly...a long time ago on a server far far away... 
con gain % fail % item % time2craft
red 032 032 068 100
ora 048 016 084 100
yel 032 008 092 100
blu 016 004 096 080
grn 008 002 098 060
gry 000 000 100 040
MP 99 98 97 96 95 94
2% 16,33% 16,33% 16,33% 16,33% 16,33% 16,33%
con gain % fail % item % time2craft
red 032 032 068 100
ora 048 016 084 100
yel 032 008 092 100
blu 016 004 096 080
grn 008 002 098 060
gry 000 000 100 040
MP 99 98 97 96 95 94
2% 16,33% 16,33% 16,33% 16,33% 16,33% 16,33%
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